Who’s Shaping Who? Tech + Automotive In The 2020s

For my debut column in Forbes, I want to address the relationships between technology and automotive companies that are a daily feature of the news about the future of mobility. What does it mean when two such different industries interact, compete, and work together with increasing frequency and intensity, motivated more by necessity than preference?

My perspective is that of a scholar who has spent 30+ years studying the global automotive industry, often in comparison with the IT industry. I hope to offer a useful counterpoint to the prevailing approach among technology strategy scholars and analysts – namely, assuming that the transformations we have seen in the digital realm (whether IT hardware or software services or platforms) will repeat themselves in industry after industry, following the same “disruption” playbook.

Assuming that all competitive situations — in all industries, worldwide — will be governed by this playbook is wrong-headed, in my view. Hence my question “who’s shaping who?” - and the stanza borrowed from Aretha’s great song. Tech is shaping automotive and automotive is shaping tech – but to what end, to what extent, and with what consequences?

To start, let’s plunge into Apple’s recent reveals about its commitment to developing a vehicle (inevitably “AppleCar” or “iCar&rdquoand its rumored talks with large automakers (aka Original Equipment Manufacturers or OEMs) ranging from Hyundai/Kia to Nissan. Is some automaker destined to become the Foxconn contract manufacturer that simply executes an Apple design under tight control and with low margins? Heightening the interest in this question is the recent announcement that Foxconn has itself entered into an agreement with electric sports car startup Fisker to manufacture its newest design, potentially in the U.S. Will Foxconn itself displace the auto OEMs?

I predict not. Automotive manufacturing, including system integration of a complex design and coordination of a global supply chain, is incredibly difficult, capital-intensive, and relatively low-margin. Tesla TSLA +19.6%, whose market valuation now vastly exceeds even the largest auto OEMs, has learned this the hard way – by mastering all the capabilities needed to become an OEM itself. Tesla, taken as a tech disruptor, has certainly shaped all future competition for electric vehicles (EVs). But learning to be an automaker has also shaped Tesla profoundly. If Tesla had not learned to become an OEM — and had followed the digital playbook that many predicted (and which Fisker and Foxconn say they will follow) — it would not have achieved its current high valuations.

While Tesla mostly went it alone (albeit after hiring automotive talent from around the world), most tech companies wanting a big role in mobility will not become OEMs. It’s a long, expensive, and difficult path, with profits far off in the future. Alliances between tech and automotive – formal and informal, short-term and long-term, and potentially taking the form of M&A — is a more likely path to generating value as these two industries shape each other en route to a new mobility future.

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